The debate over “Peak Oil” – the point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or gradually decline – has been going on for over 50 years now. Yesterday it was thrown back into the spotlight when the Government’s former chief scientist, Sir David King, announced that the world’s oil reserves may have been exaggerated by up to a third.
The argument from the researchers is that in the 1980s, members of OPEC over-reported reserves when competing for global market share, and therefore subsequently official figures are inflated. Their new research argues that estimates of conventional reserves should be downgraded from 1,150bn to 1,350bn barrels to between 850bn and 900bn barrels and claims that demand may outstrip supply as early as 2014. If they are right then we are likely to experience shortages and price spikes within years.
They are by no means the first people to suggest that OPEC is likely to have inflated its reserves; however, none of the official reserve estimates reported by the likes of the International Energy Agency (IEA), BP, the Energy Information Administration and World Oil take this into account in their statistics. The paper also raises concerns that public statistics have started to incorporate non-conventional reserves such as the Canadian tar sands, where oil and gas are much more difficult to extract and may never be economically attractive to develop.
From an offshore perspective, such news will point towards either continuing the search for new oil or a focus on enhancing recovery and production of existing reserves. Good news for Seismic Survey Companies, Well Intervention, Inspection Repair and Maintenance (IRM) and those involved with oil rig drilling services. At the mention of an increase in oil price the offshore deepwater drilling companies will also be pricking up their ears and rubbing their hands together as in increasing number of projects become commercially viable.
On Monday the British Energy minister held a summit to “calm rising fears over peak oil” after the UK industry taskforce on peak oil and energy security last month issued a provocative report entitled The Oil Crunch: a Wake-up Call for the UK Economy. So the politicians are taking notice, but what they do about it remains to be seen…
The opening of our new Aberdeen office on the 18th March 2010 also coincided with the launch of Derrick Offshore’s brand new website which has been redesigned in collaboration with UK based design services agency 
